Based on the influence of geopolitical political factors, crude oil continues to rise, and the support of cost side superposes PTA(5730, -50.00, -0.87%). Low labor cost brings the contraction of supply side, making the market price of PTA price rise. However, last week, there were signs of a turning point in the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, and the UAE called on OPEC+ to accelerate production increase. The international oil price retreated sharply, and the collapse of the support at the cost end led to the decline of PTA. The weakening of cost support and the superposition of supply and demand have some support for the time being, and the overall PTA is expected to be weak or weak in the short term. If crude oil rebounds in the later stage, PTA is highly likely to rise, so it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the trend of crude oil price.
Supply and demand are holding up
Since February, under the background of continuous high and strong operation at the cost end, the PTA processing range has been continuously compressed and even negative. Recently, due to the rollback of the cost end, the processing fee has stopped falling and stabilized. As of March 11th, the PTA processing fee is about 64.43 yuan/ton, which is still at a low level. As the processing fee of PTA continues to be compressed, the enthusiasm of enterprises to start work is reduced, so the output also has a significant decline. According to Longzhong Information, the monthly PTA output in February is 4.327,400 tons, 9.9% from the previous month. The average monthly PTA operating rate in February is 77.7%. Overall supply moved down in a narrow range. In the later stage, the PTA processing fee is also at a relatively low level. In the short term, it may still suppress the start of construction, and the supply may still be not high. As of March 11, the domestic PTA operation rate is about 73.4%, and the short-term increase is expected to be limited.
The downstream extension of PTA is mainly polyester fiber, which mainly produces ribbon, zipper and sewing thread.
In general, the low labor cost of PTA has become normal at present, and the polyester industry keeps high load under slight profit, which requires certain support, but the terminal demand support is slightly insufficient. Crude oil is expected to run at a high level in the face of geopolitical instability. The RESTART and maintenance of PTA plant coexist, and the overall supply and demand may maintain a small destorage state temporarily. Cost support weakening superimposed supply and demand has a certain support for the time being, the overall PTA is expected to be short-term or weak consolidation, if crude oil rebounds in the later stage, PTA is likely to follow the rise, it is suggested to pay attention to the trend of crude oil price.
Post time: Mar-16-2022